Kairos/RFQ Decision Review
Viewing scenarioGeofizyka Toruń·

Decision Review™ · Executive Brief

OPP‑2041·Proceed with ConditionsExecutive Review82% Confidence

Geofizyka Toruń

Open Hole Imaging Package

Prepared for A. Morgan, VP Commercial · RFQ value £1.20M · Decision window closes 04 Jul 2026

Customer
Geofizyka Toruń
Tier 2 · 3 prior engagements
RFQ value
£1.20M
Currency · GBP · 32% PLN cost base
Decision window
04 Jul 2026
Executive review pending
Policy fit
Proceed with Conditions
Confidence 82%
82%
Confidence

Decision Confidence™

Above commit threshold

Confidence has held above the 80% threshold for 36 hours. Top contributors: technical capability (+22), commercial fit (+19).

Strengths 4 Watch 2 Risk 1

Kairos Recommendation

k‑core v4.23 conditions outstanding
Proceedwith conditions

Authorise commercial to issue a conditional offer once the three required actions are confirmed. Re‑route to executive review on 03 Jul to validate hedge and tool string before final sign‑off.

Section 01

Executive Summary

Geofizyka Toruń is requesting a full open‑hole imaging package for a three‑well exploration programme in the Polish Lowlands. The technical scope aligns closely with two previously delivered engagements (Kromolin‑3, 2024 and Wronów‑2, 2025), both of which closed within margin targets.

Commercial terms are within policy, but the customer has a documented pattern of mid‑project scope expansion that historically eroded margin by 3–5pp. We recommend proceeding with a change‑order ceiling and a confirmed secondary tool string. Treasury review is required for the PLN‑denominated component (32% of cost base).

Win probability
74%
Expected margin
18.4%
Capital at risk
£218k

Section 02

Decision DNA™

Six weighted dimensions that compose the overall confidence score.

Commercial fitwt 22
88
Technical capabilitywt 20
92
Customer historywt 16
71
Supplier riskwt 14
64
Margin posturewt 16
79
Legal exposurewt 12
58
0commit threshold · 80100

Section 03

Top Risks

Ranked by expected margin impact across the engagement.

R01
Customer scope volatility
High

Last two engagements required >20% mid-project scope expansion. Margin erosion 3–5pp observed.

Source · Kromolin‑3 · Wronów‑2 retrospectives
R02
Tool availability — wireline string
Medium

Backup kit committed to Aker BP in same window. Procurement to confirm alternative by 02 Jul.

Source · Asset registry · 28 Jun snapshot
R03
Currency exposure (PLN)
Medium

32% of cost base settled in PLN with no active hedge. Treasury sign‑off required.

Source · Treasury policy §4.2.1
R04
Legal review pending
High

Master service terms amendment awaiting counsel review — draft returned 26 Jun.

Source · Legal desk · matter M‑2041

Section 06

Decision Replay™

Every step the Kairos engine took, fully auditable.

  1. 24 Jun · 09:14·System
    RFQ ingested · 142 documents parsed by k‑core
  2. 24 Jun · 09:22·Knowledge Graph
    Auto‑matched to 3 historical projects · similarity 81%
  3. 25 Jun · 11:08·Margin Engine
    Margin model run · target 18.4% achievable
  4. 26 Jun · 16:41·Risk Engine
    2 risks flagged · customer scope volatility, PLN exposure
  5. 27 Jun · 08:30·Kairos AI
    Draft recommendation generated · 82% confidence
  6. Today · 14:02·Workflow
    Routed to A. Morgan for executive review

Section 07

What changes the decision?

Live simulation. Adjust the levers to see how Kairos re-scores the recommendation.

Payment termsStandard
Tool availabilityPartial
Margin floorOn target
Delivery windowManageable

Simulated outcome

Proceed with Conditions
Updated with your inputs
Decision Confidence™
82%0pp
Decision DNA™
76%0pp

Simulation only · does not modify the committed Decision Review™.

Section 08

Ask Kairos

Structured explanations grounded in this Decision Review™. Answers cite the same inputs as the recommendation.

k‑core v4.2
Why did Kairos recommend this?
Kairos · Geofizyka Toruń

The engagement is technically well-matched (92/100) with strong commercial fit (88/100), but Geofizyka has a documented pattern of mid-project scope expansion and 32% of the cost base sits in PLN. Proceeding is defensible only with a change-order ceiling, treasury hedge review, and secondary tool string confirmation.

Grounded in Decision DNA™, Decision Replay™ and evidence trail

Section 04

Required Actions

  • A01Add change-order ceiling clause
    P. Novak·Legal·due 01 Jul
  • A02Confirm secondary tool string availability
    R. Chen·Operations·due 02 Jul
  • A03Run treasury hedge review for PLN exposure
    S. Okafor·Treasury·due 03 Jul
  • A04Schedule executive sign-off call
    A. Morgan·Commercial·due 04 Jul

Section 05

Missing Information

  • Updated HSE bridging document (rev 4.2)
    outstanding 5 days
  • Final logistics quote — Maersk Drilling Logistics
    outstanding 3 days
  • Confirmation of crew rotation pattern for Q3
    outstanding 2 days
  • Secondary tool string availability window
    outstanding 4 days

Audit trail

Generated
Kairos AI
27 Jun · 08:30
Reviewed
P. Novak (Legal)
29 Jun · 17:14
Pending
A. Morgan
04 Jul · EOD
Decision id · dec_01J9KP2RT4M

Executive sign-off

Two endorsements received · one signature outstanding

By committing, you attest that the Decision DNA™ inputs, risk register and required actions have been reviewed in line with Kairos Intelligence governance policy KIG-0042.

PNP. NovakLegalEndorsed
RCR. ChenOperationsEndorsed
AMA. MorganCommercialPending